ACT Research Co. projects that 2010 production of Class 8 vehicles will reach about 154,500 units, up 31 percent from a relatively weak 2009 but still well below traditional replacement demand. The growth was predicated largely on a surge in orders in the fourth quarter, ACT said.
ACT forecasts that demand will continue to ramp up over the next two years, with production in 2012 and 2013 exceeding 300,000 units. This reflects the industry’s move to replace aging vehicles after deferring such actions for the past two years, ACT said.
Production of commercial trailers was extremely weak in 2009, but the latest forecast from ACT expects the sector to grow rates in excess of 50 percent in 2010 and 2011.
“The combination of rising freight volumes, improving trucker profits, rising used equipment values and the oldest North American fleet on record have led to a resurgence in demand for new commercial vehicles,” said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst with ACT Research.
“The biggest constraint in 2011 will be the ability of equipment manufacturers and component parts suppliers to ramp up production fast enough. As a result, the upcycle is expected to last through 2013,” he added.
